Jonathan E. Czarnecki, Ph.D.

Related Credentials

Certified Planner, American Management Association

Certified Facilitator, Institute for Man and Science

Certified Defense Strategist, Army War College

Certified Budget Analyst, National Association of State Budget Officers

Certified Total Quality Management Advisor, National Guard Bureau

Research Contributions and Publications

"Force Posture: A Historical Case Study of National Security Strategy in Action," with Robert Tomlinson, paper presented at the International Security Studies Symposium, Gainesville, FL Nov. 2022

"Pulse and Pace: Two Desirable Attributes Extending Legacy Systems Effectiveness," paper presented and published in Proceedings of the 27th ICCRTS Conference, Quebec City, Quebec, Oct. 2022

"Leadership and Resiliency: What Models Can Inform us about Operations," paper presented at the International Security Studies Symposium, Bloomington, IN, Nov. 2021

"Institutions, Individuals and Identities: Revisiting the Effects of Trump onThe International Order" with Robert Tomlinson, paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Conference, Honolulu, HI, April 2020 (Conference canceled due to pandemic)

“When Crowds Go Bad: International Migration as Mob Behavior,” With Anne Marie Baylouny and Steven Hall, paper to be presented at the International Security Studies Symposium/International Studies Association Conference, Denver Colorado, October 18, 2019

“The Transformation of Conflict: Revisiting the Social Distance of Social Conflict,” paper to be presented at the International Security Studies Symposium/International Studies Association Conference, Denver Colorado, October 18, 2019

“Social Resilience in Resistance and Insurgency,” with Patricia Blocksome, paper to be presented at the International Security Studies Symposium/International Studies Association Conference, Denver Colorado, October 18, 2019

Commentary, Narrative and Conflict: Explorations in Theory and Practice Journal, July 2019.

“The Lessons of Viserion and the Third Offset,” in M.L. Cavanaugh and John Ambler, Strategic Lessons of The Game of Thrones, 2019.

“The Failed Thermostat: Illusions of Control in an Information-Rich Age,” Strategy Bridge, October 24, 2018.

“What Our Professional Military Leaders Need To Know: Enhancing the Professional Military Educational Structure,” Journal of Military Learning, Fall 2018.

“New Concepts of Security,” Special Operations Research Journal, Fall, 2018.

“Real Organizational Transformation: The United States Army and Task Force Delta,” paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Conference, San Francisco, California, April 5, 2018.

With Robert Tomlinson, “Charisma, Social Media and International Institutions: The Destruction of the post-Cold War International Order By One Man, President Donald Trump,” paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Conference, San Francisco, California, April 5, 2018

“What Our Professional Military Leaders Need To Know: An Alternative Structure for Professional Military Education,” paper presented at the International Security Studies Symposium/International Studies Association Conference, Washington, DC, October 14, 2017

“Poetry as Therapy or The Dead Soldiers Poets’ Society,” in Strategy Bridge (online journal), September 17, 2017

With Steven B. Hall, “A Framework for Modeling the Impact of Sensemaking Crises on the Agility Resilience of Complex Social Identity Groups,” chapter in Saurrabh Mittal, Saikou Diallo, and Andreas Tolk (editors), Emergent Behavior in Complex Systems Engineering; New York: John Wiley & Sons, forthcoming.

With Robert Tomlinson, The Influence of Foreign Wars on Domestic Military Policy: The Yom Kippur War and the U.S. Military; Lanham, Maryland: Lexington Books, forthcoming.

With Steven B. Hall, “How Organizations in Crisis Respond: A Theoretical Integrative Model,” paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Conference, Baltimore, Maryland, February 2017.

“New Aspects of Security: Centerpiece for Civil Affairs Engagement,” paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Conference, Baltimore, Maryland, February 2017.

With Robert Tomlinson, “The Influence of Foreign Wars on Domestic Military Policy: the Case of the Yom Kippur War,” paper presented at the International Studies Association Annual Conference, Baltimore, Maryland, February 2017.

“Real Organizational Transformation: The United States Army and Task Force Delta,” paper presented at the International Security Studies Symposium-International Studies Association Conference, South Bend, Indiana, November 2016.

With Steven Hall, “The Three Carriers of Midway: A Case Study of Behavioral Diversity as a Function of Organizational Resiliency,” paper presented at the International Studies Association West Annual Conference, Pasadena, California, September 2016.

With Robert Tomlinson, “Active Learning, Competency-Based Education and the Integrated Curriculum for Professional Military Education: The Baltic Scenario Simulation of the Naval War College,” paper presented at the International Studies Association West Conference, Pasadena, California, September 2016.

“C2 Success and Failure in Major Combat Operations: A Statistical Analysis,” in Proceedings of the 20th ICCRTS; Alexandria, Virginia: CCRP Publications, 2016.

“Organizational Change and Operational Success: Some Evidence from the Ultimate Form of Social Conflict,” paper presented at the International Studies Association-West Conference, Pasadena, California, September, 2015

“The Necessity for Civil Affairs to Confront The New Forms of Security,” paper for The Civil Affairs Association, August 2015

“Globalization, Information and Change: A Comparative Analysis of Bobbit’s and Mann’s Theses,” paper for International Security Studies Symposium-International Studies Association Annual Conference on Security Studies, November 15, 2014, Austin, Texas

“New Concepts of Security for Stabilization and Reconstruction,” paper for the International Studies Association-West Conference, September 27, 2014, Pasadena, California.

“Safe and Secure Environments: A Literature Review, “for GISD project and publication, 2014.

Command and Control,” a contributory essay to G. Kurt Piehler (editor), Encyclopedia of Military Science; Thousand Oaks, California: SAGE Publications, 2013.

“Military Operations in Cold Weather,” a contributory essay to G. Kurt Piehler (editor), Encyclopedia of Military Science; Thousand Oaks, California: SAGE Publications, 2013.

with K. Todd Chamberlain, “Graceful Degradation: A C2 Design Virtue for Our Times, “ Eighteenth International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Washington, D.C., June 2013.

“The Effects of Information Distribution in Major Combat Operations,” International Studies Association Annual Conference, San Francisco, California, March 2013.

with Dayne L. Nix, “Practicing Stability: The Use of Scenarios in Learning about Civil Military Operations,” International Security Studies Symposium/International Studies Association Conference, Durham, North Carolina, October 2012.

“The Limits of More Information,” British International Studies Association/International Studies Association Conference, Edinburgh, Scotland, June 2012.

“Social Distance and Generations of Warfare,” International Security Studies Symposium, Long Beach, California, October 2011.

“A Working Model for Considering Civil Military Operations From the Command (and Control) Perspective,” Sixteenth International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Quebec City, Quebec, June 2011.

“C2 Effectiveness and Operational Success: An Empirical Exploration,” Sixteenth International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Quebec City, Quebec, June 2011.

“Refugee Wars, or The Return of the Huns,” International Security Studies Symposium/International Studies Association Conference, Providence, Rhode Island, October 2010.

“Philosophy driving Ontology: Ideas from the Past Influencing the Future of Command (and Control),” Fifteenth International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Santa Monica, California, June, 2010.

“Military Organizations and Operations as Models of Change: A Statistical Explanation of Who Succeeds and Fails On the Battlefield,” Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, Illinois, April 2010

“Homeland Security: Enduring Weakness of Command and Control,” Western Political Science Association, San Francisco, California, April, 2010

“Defining the Operating Environment: The Critical First Step in 21st Century Military Operations,” ISSS/ISAC Conference, Monterey, California, October, 2009

“Agility and Appropriateness: Matching Shift to Scale,” Fourteenth International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Washington, D.C., June, 2009

“Why Combat Operations Succeed or Fail: A Final Report on the Major Combat Operations Statistical Model (MCOSM),” Midwest Political Science Association, April, 2009.

“The National Security Strategy of the United States: Performance over Time,” Strategos, Vol. 1, Issue 1, January, 2009.

“The Limits of Information,” Proceedings of the PROTEUS Workshop; Carlisle Barracks, Pennsylvania: United States Army War College, July, 2008.

“The National Security Strategy of the United States: Efficiency and Effectiveness,Performance over Time,” International Security Affairs Conference, Vail, Colorado, October, 2008

“The Failed Thermostat: The Illusion of Control In an Information-Rich Age,” Thirteenth International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Seattle, Washington, June, 2008.

“Understanding Modern Major Combat Operations: Lessons from the Extreme Edge of Politics,” Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April, 2008

“Command and Control Operational Warfare in an Age of Entropy,” for Tenth International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Newport, Rhode Island, June, 2007.

“Confronting the Enemy: The United States Navy Between 1962-1980,” in Kenneth Hagan, editor, In Peace and War, revised edition to be published in 2007.

“The CoG Crutch and Other Concepts of a Transformational System,” in Campaigning, Joint Advanced Warfighting School, Joint Forces Staff College, Summer, 2006.

“Exploring the Oracle of Battle: The Pursuit of a Practical Theory of Joint Combat Operations,” in International Symposium of Forecasting Conference Proceedings, ISF Press: San Antonio, Texas, June, 2005.

“Much Ado About…little: (Or How to Confuse and Confound the Public on Defense Dollars)”, for Northrup Information Services, Scott, Virginia, December 26, 2004.

with Kenneth Hagan, “Transforming Athena: Educating Officers During A Period of Great Change,” for Fifth Annual Conference on Military Pedagogy, Shrivenham, England, December 14, 2004.

“Oracle of Battle: A First Approach to Forecasting Success in Joint Combat Operations,” in International Symposium of Forecasting Conference Proceedings, ISF Press: Sydney, Australia, July, 2004.

“Towards a Theory of Joint Military Operations,” in InFORMS Annual Conference Proceedings, InFORMS: Atlanta, December, 2003.

“Attributes for an Effective Homeland Defense,” in InFORMS Annual Conference Proceedings, InFORMS: San Jose, California, November, 2002.

"Long and Deep Journey: A 21st Strategic Planning Approach for the Army National Guard Directorate." Submitted for publication to National Guard Review, December, 2000.

"Learning from the Past: What Wellington can teach 21st Century Warriors."

Submitted for the Colbert Prize, Naval War College, June, 1999.

"Strategic Planning in Uncertain Times: Using Cross Impact Analysis."

Supporting Data for the State of Franklin. A technical supplement to the Army National Guard Strategic Planning course. Washington, National Guard Bureau: 1996.

The Army National Guard Long-Range Plan, Washington, National Guard Bureau: 1990, 1991.

Energy Prospects for New York State: A Qualitative Forecast: A Special Report to the Senate Minority Leader. Albany, New York: New York State Senate, 1980.

"An Initial Analysis of New York State Hazardous Waste Transportation Policy." Presented at the Adelphi Forum, Adelphi University, Westbury, New York: March, 1981.

"Qualitative Energy Forecasts." Presented at the National Energy Conference, West Virginia University, Morgantown: September, 1980.

"Community Impact Assessment: A Survey Approach." Presented at the Conference on Social Impact Assessment, Calgary, Canada: 1980.

"Rural Housing in New York State." Presented at the New York State Conference on Rural Housing, Plattsburgh, New York: 1979.

In Rem Housing. A Special Report for the New York State Senate Housing Committee, Albany, New York: 1979.

"Water Pollution Control: An Implementation Estimate Based on the Predispositions of Implementors," with Sheldon Kamieniecki and Steven Cohen. Occasional Paper, Environmental Studies Center, State University of New York, Buffalo: 1979.

with Sheldon Kamieniecki, "Representation and Participation in Water Quality Planning,". Presented at the Western Political Science Association meeting, Portland, Oregon: 1978.

"Community through Participation." Presented at the American Political Science Association Annual meeting, Chicago: 1978.

with Sheldon Kamieniecki, "Public Participation in Water Quality Planning," in Energy and Environmental Issues, Michael Stedman (ed.), Lexington Books, 1978.

with Harry Klodowski and Lester Milbrath,"Beliefs about Growth," Technology and Growth, Volume XIII, May, 1978.

as part of the Environmental Studies Center Staff, "An Extra Dimension of Representation in Water Quality Planning: A Survey of Erie and Niagara Counties, New York, 1976," Occasional Paper, Environmental Studies Center, State University of New York, Buffalo: 1977.

with Robert Sahr, "Environmental Beliefs of Adirondack Residents and Leaders," in Proceedings of the Northern New York-Lake Champlain Environmental Conference, Miner Center, Chazy, New York: 1975.

Awards and Decorations

Defense Meritorious Service Medal

Meritorious Service Medal
Four Awards

Army Commendation Medal
Two Awards

Army Achievement Medal
Four Awards

National Defense Service Medal
Two Awards

Armed Forces Reserve Medal

Overseas Service Ribbon

Department of Defense Staff Identification Badge

Army Staff Identification Badge

Navy Incentive Awards
Five Awards

Length of Services Awards
5, 10, 15, 20 Years

Charles F. Kettering Fellowship
1975-78

Other Honors

Panel Discussant, ISSS/ISA Conference
2019

Panel Chair, Discussant, ISA Annual Conference
2018

Panel Chair, ISSS-ISA Annual Conference on Security Studies
2017

Panel Chair, ISSS-ISA Annual Conference on Security Studies
2016

Panel Chair and Discussant, ISA Annual Conference
2016

Panel Chair, ISA West Annual Conference
2015

Panel Chair, ISSS-ISA Annual Conference on Security Studies
2015

Panel Chair, ISSS-ISA Annual Conference on Security Studies
2014

Panel Chair, World International Studies Association Conference
2014

Poster, International Studies Association
2013

Panel Chair, International Studies Association
2013

Discussant, International Studies Association
2013

Panel Chair, ISSS/ISA
2012

Discussant, ISSS/ISA
2011

Discussant, Midwest Political Science Association
2010

Panel Chair and Presenter, Midwest Political Science Association
2009

Panel Chair and Presenter, Midwest Political Science Association
2008

Eisenhower Conference on Homeland Security
October, 2005, Participant

International Symposium of Forecasters
June, 2005, Panel Chair and presenter

Army War College Annual Strategy Conference
April, 2004, Strategy Workshop Participant

National inFORMS Conference
October 2003, Panel Chair and presenter

Current Strategy Forum
June 2003, Facilitator

Annual Strategy Conference
April 2003, Workshop participant

Washington DC inFORMS Conference
April 2003, Discussant

National inFORMS Conference
November 2002, Presenter

Fletcher Conference on National Strategy
September 2002, Participant

Army War College Annual Strategy Conference
April 2002, Strategy Workshop Participant

Institute of National Security Studies (NDU) Conference on Joint Operations
September, 2001, Participant

Army War College Annual Strategy Conference
April 2000, Teaching Workshop Participant

Army War College Annual Strategy Conference
April 1999, Workshop Participant

External Memberships and Associations

American Political Science Association

Association of United States Army Strategists

International Security Association

International Security Studies Symposium

United States Naval Institute

Army Strategists Association

International Association of Strategic Planners