The Times Are Changing: Technology and the Likelihood of War
Every technological breakthrough eventually materializes on the battlefield, yet little is known about the relationship between technological change and the frequency of war. How will the development and militarization of artificial intelligence influence the likelihood of war between the United States and China? I propose a new answer: when potential belligerents share a convergent conception of the military role of novel technologies, they will be less likely to enter war. In contrast, when potential belligerents have divergent beliefs about the military application of novel technologies, they will be more likely to escalate to conflict. My research plan is a mixed-method approach consisting of:
- historical case studies; and
- experimental wargaming conducted to test the central theoretical mechanism.
About this Lecture
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